In a story that was buried on the back pages of the St. Louis Suburban Journals, Missouri House Democrats named Rep. Rachel Storch (D-64) to lead the House Democratic Campaign Committee for the 2008 election cycle.  Storch represents the Central West End and neighboring areas in St. Louis CIty, and was just re-elected last fall, without any opposition in either the primary or general elections.

You may be wondering why I consider this bit of campaign news important to GOP victories in 2008.  I can sum that up in one word - money.

The Missouri Democratic Party, for about two decades now, has been using Democratic candidates from St. Louis City as their "bankers" for everything from statewide races all they way down to targeted state representative districts.  Rarely, if ever, are City Democratic candidates ever challenged in general elections, and, only since term limits, are there contested primary elections.  But all of these Democratic candidates, running completely unopposed, continue to raise thousands of dollars each election cycle, even though they're guaranteed re-election.  So where does the money go?  Answer: Where ever the Missouri Democratic Party needs it to go.

Case in point:  Rachel Storch raised over $7,500 for her unopposed 2006 campaign - and gave almost $6,500 to other Democratic campaigns.

This has been an almost open secret to most campaign watchers in Missouri, but the Missouri Republican Party leadership has never really attempted to close the faucet on this flow of money - even though it would be very easy to do.  How, you ask?  Just get GOP candidates to run in St. Louis City districts.

As an example, the only state representative district in St. Louis City that was contested in 2006 by a GOP candidate was the 108th District, currently held by Rep. Tom Villa.  In contrast to Ms. Storch, Tom raised over $12,000 for his campaign, but only sent a little more than $4,000 to other Dem candidates - meaning that he spent over $6,000 on a campaign that, by all accounts, he'd already won when the filing closed in February.  There are similar results for almost every GOP contested race in St. Louis City going back at least 20 years.

The Dems are counting on Ms. Storch being completely unopposed again in 2008, and, therefore, being free to devote all of her time to helping raise money for other Democratic candidates.  This gives the MRP a really easy counter plan - if they'd ever be willing to consider it.

If a solid GOP candidate files in the 64th District, gets just a modest amount of state party backing (a few hundred bucks and a little logistical help, nothing more than that from the MRP and HRCC), and actively campaigns all year in the district, Ms. Storch is going to feel a lot of pressure to concentrate more on her own campaign, and will have less time to dedicate to the MDP's statewide efforts.  This would effectively leave the HDCC leaderless (or, at worst, left with a "leader" in name only, with others having to take up the workload).  Plus, it will suck up a lot of Democratic donations that will be spent on a campaign that they'd marked as "safe" - which means that the money won't be able to be used for more important races.

Multiply this by the 11 state rep and 1 state senate districts in St. Louis City, and add in the City of Kansas City districts that have been similarly neglected by the MRP in recent years, and you've got a recipe for drying up the funds the Dems have been supplying to their statewide candidates and the swing districts in the St. Louis and KC suburban areas (where the GOP has been losing seats in recent elections), and handing the GOP statewide candidates a considerable funding advantage over their Democratic opponents.

Now, I know that campaign funding isn't the only deciding factor in winning elections.  But it is one of the most important ones.  Another key ingredient is manpower, and actively contested campaigns in St. Louis City will divert campaign volunteers from suburban campaigns to City ones.

I'm not naive enough to think that GOP candidates can win a bunch of seats in St. Louis City any time soon (although there are a couple of districts that may be winnable).  But if the MRP is going to be serious about holding on the governer's mansion and other statewide offices in 2008, as well as keeping the Democrats from mounting serious campaigns against our potentially vunerable U. S. Congressional seats, then the MRP and the HRCC and HRSC are going to have to do some "outside the box" thinking, and take another look at St. Louis City, and it's importance to the Dems.

So the question is:  How serious is the Missouri Republican Party about winning in 2008?